Ambassador Ebenezer Olusanmokun is a retired Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary. His Foreign Service career spanned postings at the then American Affairs Department of the Ministry where he was charged with examining or appraising political or economic reports from our American or Caribbean Missions and recommending follow-up actions.
Between 1985 and 1988, he served as Senior Counselor at the Ministry’s Policy Planning department which was the think tank of the ministry at the time. Perhaps the most significant foreign policy instrument formulated by Nigeria for furthering both her bilateral and multilateral relations was fashioned during the period, the Technical Aid Corps (TAC).
As Deputy Director, first United Nations Dept, between 1995 – 1998, he was a Delegate to the UN Disarmament Commission in 1996; member, Nigeria Delegation, to the UN General Assemblies in 1995, 1996 and 1998 and served on the Second Committee. He served virtually in all the continents, specifically in Europe (France 1982 – 1985), the Americas (Brazil, Bolivia or Paraguay, 1988 – 1992), Asia (India 1975 – 1979, Hong Kong/Macau 1999 – 2003), Africa (Senegal, Cape Verde 1998 – 1999, Cote d’ Ivoire 2004 – 2007).
In 2004, he was appointed Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to the Republic of Cote d’ Ivoire. He holds the honor of Commander of the Order of the Republic of Cote d’ Ivoire, 2007. He is an ordained Pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God. Currently, he is a retired National Elder of the Mission serving at the Central Parish, Wuse 2, Abuja. He recently spoke exclusively to livesonline.ng on a wide range of issues about President Trump’s return to power.
Q.: Donald Trump has just been sworn in again as President. What does this mean for Africa?
A.: Africa should brace up for a US President who shoots straight; has no diplomatic finesse; who often speaks his mind, rarely showing decorum. In his mind, Africa is no better than a “shit-hole”, to quote one of his notorious expressions. He promised during the campaigns to deport millions of illegal immigrants, if elected. And since his inauguration few days ago, he has begun to vigorously carry out the policy with hundreds already being rounded up.
No matter who the President is, US national interests will always dictate policy. Every US administration will always seek to be the preponderant global leader in political, military, economic, scientific and technological power. On account of President Trump’s peculiar personality and antecedents in his first term (2017-2020), and the flurry of Executive Orders he signed in his first day in office, and his administration’s actions in the first week, it is evident that his style and emphasis diverge greatly from his predecessor’s.
Q.: Should the continent expect a shift in US immigration policies, trade relations?
A.: The shift in US immigration policies under Trump will likely produce a seismic effect on immigrant communities, which are now in a panic mode. The President has authorized raids on hospitals, churches,even schools ,etc, to arrest illegal immigrants, and hundreds have been taken into custody, contrary to previous rules limiting where such arrests could be made. The US Immigration Customs Enforcement (US ICE) is being directed to ‘expedite removal’ and deport undocumented persons as confirmed by the President’s border Czar,Tom Homan.
Birthright citizenship ban by Trump portends a significant shift in US immigration policy. Its implementation, however, faces legal challenges given that the right is a constitutional one. In fact, several US States have already filed suits in the courts to challenge the order. Legal experts doubt that the courts will endorse the executive order, all things being equal. If the ban stands, certain middle class Nigerians who like to have their babies born in USA so as to secure US citizenship for their kids will be short-changed. Not only will Nigeria’s birth tourism be affected, several thousands of the 376,000 Nigerians resident in USA may be deported. This is bound to threaten the USD 20 billion annual diaspora inflow.
Q.: What shape will US-Africa/Nigeria trade relations likely take?<
A.: Africa/Nigeria’s trade with the USA is not significant. However, USA is Nigeria’s largest foreign investor. Trade volume between both countries in 2022 totaled USD8.1billion. Nigeria’s export to the USA in 2023 was USD 4.8 billion, including fertilizers, lead, cocoa and cocoa preparations, plastics, fuels, etc. USA/Africa trade has complex trade relations involving agreements, investment and African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Under Donald Trump’s new administration, Africa as a continent may be sidelined while Trump tries to strike bilateral deals with specific countries on transactional basis so characteristic of him. It is believed that the AGOA which grants African nations duty-free access to the US market for specific products faces some uncertainty. Even though AGOA may be renewed this year (2025), yet under Trump 2.0, it is likely to take a more transactional form, thus restricting tariff-free access.
Given Trump’s disposition, it is expected that US engagement in Africa may privilege US strategic interests while sidelining African economic development, and placing greater emphasis on bilateral deals. The newly re-elected President’s America First policy of trying to increase oil production with his “drill, baby, drill” song, is aimed at drawing down energy costs in order mainly to limit Russia’s ability to continue its brutal war in Ukraine. It is probable that this policy approach will have a deleterious effect on Nigeria’s economy so long as the country is so dependent on oil exports to drive her economy. The repercussions will be roughly the same on other African oil-producing nations-revenue challenges, static or declining GDP’s, for example.
Trump’s transactional approach to policy-America First, and the weaponization of tariffs, will put Africa at a disadvantage in its trade with the US. Africa will therefore have to look inwards and prioritize inter-African trade and intensify implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AFCFTA).
Trump’s second coming has predictably thrown the current world order into chaos. Antagonizing allies and foes alike-NATO members, EU, Denmark, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Panama, Russia, Ukraine, etc. The hope, however, is that as he settles down more and the euphoria of a gargantuan unexpected election victory wears off, President Trump will become more realistic and play his role more maturely as the leader of the foremost super power.
Body text quotes
“No matter who the President is, US national interests will always dictate policy”
“Even though AGOA may be renewed this year (2025), yet under Trump 2.0, it is likely to take a more transactional form, thus restricting tariff-free access.”
“Trump’s transactional approach to policy-America First, and the weaponization of tariffs, will put Africa at a disadvantage in its trade with the US.”
“Trump’s second coming has predictably thrown the current world order into chaos. Antagonizing allies and foes alike-NATO members, EU, Denmark, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Panama, Russia, Ukraine, etc.”
